← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 20, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 38% | 49% | 2.64 | value: +30% |
| FC Groningen win | 34% | 24% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Groningen +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +9% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Etienne Vaessen · FC Groningen |
| 10' | 🟨 | Paxten Aaronson · FC Utrecht |
| 20' | ⚽ | Yoann Cathline · FC Utrecht |
| 68' | 🟨 | Noah Ohio · FC Utrecht |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marvin Peersman · FC Groningen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Souffian El Karouani · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Euroborg |
| coach days | 477.00 | 415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1392.09 | 1657.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.01 | 38.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 13.91 | 14.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.14 | 26.41 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.36 |