← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 73% | 63% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 23% | 6.00 | value: +37% |
| Waalwijk win | 11% | 14% | 9.19 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +1.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Waalwijk +1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Richonell Margaret · Waalwijk |
| 26' | 🟨 | Michel Vlap · FC Twente '65 |
| 47' | ⚽ | Silvester van der Water · Waalwijk |
| 67' | 🟨 | Julian Lelieveld · Waalwijk |
| 76' | 🟨 | Youri Regeer · FC Twente '65 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carel Eiting · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| coach days | 476.00 | 476.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1400.38 | 1736.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.35 | 13.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.23 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -1.23 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 24.96 |
| state index | -1.59 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.41 |