← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 56% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | fair |
| Almere City win | 20% | 24% | 5.07 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Almere City −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 58% | 1.90 | value: +10% |
| Under | 49% | 42% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Thomas Robinet · Almere City |
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Boyd Reith · Almere City |
| 32' | 🟨 | Junior Kadile · Almere City |
| 36' | 🟨 | Pelle Clement · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 49' | ⚽ | Camiel Neghli · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 55' | ⚽ | Pelle Clement · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · Almere City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mike Eerdhuijzen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mike Eerdhuijzen · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Visus · Almere City |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Àlex Carbonell · Almere City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 476.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1586.61 | 1408.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.21 | -28.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.58 |
| league points | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 13.85 | 14.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.06 | -1.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -1.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.46 |