← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 75% | 79% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.32 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 10% | 8% | 10.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −1.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| AFC Ajax −1.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 62% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 38% | 2.71 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | 🟨 | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Josip Šutalo · AFC Ajax |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jorg Schreuders · FC Groningen |
| 71' | 🟨 | Thijmen Blokzijl · FC Groningen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Youri Baas · AFC Ajax |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mika Godts · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff ArenA |
| coach days | 158.00 | 463.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.44 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1735.49 | 1394.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.65 | 3.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | -0.70 |
| solidity v1 | 1.58 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 24.53 | 23.70 |
| state index | 1.25 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.54 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.43 |