← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 60% | 56% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.33 | value: +13% |
| Heracles win | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −1 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.29 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
| 55' | ⚽ | Gerrit Nauber · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 73' | 🟨 | Fabian de Keijzer · Heracles |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Mats Deijl · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mats Deijl · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 89' | ⚽ | Victor Kaj Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Finn Stokkers · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| coach days | 97.00 | 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1510.23 | 1428.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.08 | 12.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 8.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 1.03 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.33 |