← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 70% | 74% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.47 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 12% | 8% | 8.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Utrecht −1.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 63% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 37% | 2.67 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Denilho Cleonise · Waalwijk |
| 26' | 🟥 | Aaron Meijers · Waalwijk |
| 28' | ⚽ | Nick Viergever · FC Utrecht |
| 51' | ⚽ | Paxten Aaronson · FC Utrecht |
| 52' | ⚽ | David Min · FC Utrecht |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Richonell Margaret · Waalwijk |
| 85' | 🟨 | Noah Ohio · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 400.00 | 462.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1654.55 | 1403.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.55 | -43.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 25.27 |
| state index | 0.74 | -1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 0.75 |