← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 22, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: D. Higler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 41% | 38% | 2.34 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 32% | 34% | 3.02 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Groningen −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SC Heerenveen −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.25 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand