← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Kamphuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 58% | 58% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Heracles win | 19% | 20% | 5.19 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +1.5 | 50% | 1.83 |
| NEC +1.5 | 50% | 1.83 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 51% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 49% | 2.29 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 12' | 🟨 | Ivan Mesík · Heracles |
| 13' | ⚽ | Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
| 25' | 🟨 | Bram Nuytinck · NEC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ruben Roosken · Heracles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · NEC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Daniel van Kaam · Heracles |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dirk Proper · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 1543.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1603.50 | 1401.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.21 | -10.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.92 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| league points | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.38 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.83 |