← Eredivisie 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 69% | 71% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.30 | value: +6% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 12% | 9% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ −1.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| SC Heerenveen −1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 65% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 35% | 2.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Sven Mijnans · AZ |
| 19' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 23' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 48' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 50' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 56' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · AZ |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Sadiq · AZ |
| 75' | ⚽ | Mexx Meerdink · AZ |
| 80' | 🟨 | Daniel Karlsbakk · SC Heerenveen |
| 82' | ⚽ | Kristijan Belić · AZ |
| 85' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 15 |
| 19 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 257.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1702.63 | 1493.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.67 | -19.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 15.04 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 1.18 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.94 | — |
| state index | 1.06 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.68 |