β Eredivisie 2024-25 Β· Fri, Aug 30, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: R. Dieperink
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 67% | 68% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.84 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 13% | 13% | 7.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AZ +1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Waalwijk +1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.65 | value: +3% |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | π¨ | Reuven Niemeijer Β· Waalwijk |
| 26' | π¨ | Daouda Weidmann Β· Waalwijk |
| 31' | β½ | Ruben van Bommel Β· AZ |
| 36' | β½ | Ruben van Bommel Β· AZ |
| 44' | π¨ | Dario Van Den Buijs Β· Waalwijk |
| 46' | π¨ | Michiel Kramer Β· Waalwijk |
| 46' | π¨ | Wouter Goes Β· AZ |
| 72' | π₯ | Michiel Kramer Β· Waalwijk |
| 77' | π¨ | Ruben van Bommel Β· AZ |
| 87' | β½ | Mexx Meerdink Β· AZ |
| 90' | π¨ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 4 | Shots | 22 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| Chris Lokesa Β· Waalwijk |
| 90' | π¨ | Kristijan BeliΔ Β· AZ |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 426.00 | 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1435.73 | 1714.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.77 | 12.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.14 | 5.32 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -1.65 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 23.63 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.16 |