← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 71% | 73% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.81 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 13% | 13% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 +1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| PEC Zwolle +1.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 71% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Mees Hilgers · FC Twente '65 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 68' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 79' | 🟨 | Davy van den Berg · PEC Zwolle |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 26 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days | 930.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1471.17 | 1729.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.04 | -7.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 36.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -2.26 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 25.92 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.40 |