← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Blank
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 58% | 53% | 1.66 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 29% | 4.60 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse +1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| AFC Ajax +1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 64% | 1.31 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 36% | 3.60 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Dominik Oroz · Vitesse |
| 15' | ⚽ | Amine Boutrah · Vitesse |
| 42' | ⚽ | Josip Šutalo · AFC Ajax |
| 61' | 🟨 | Josip Šutalo · AFC Ajax |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kacper Kozłowski · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anis Hadj Moussa · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Bergwijn · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 25 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 200.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1423.76 | 1713.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.66 | 3.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 23.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | -1.57 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 24.93 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.32 |