← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 57% | 46% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.27 | value: +15% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 20% | 27% | 4.75 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| SC Heerenveen −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 59% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 41% | 2.89 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel |