← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 12:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 85% | 76% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 10.72 | value: +30% |
| Waalwijk win | 6% | 12% | 17.00 | value: +102% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PSV −2.5 | 54% | 1.77 |
| Waalwijk −2.5 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 85% | 78% | 1.14 | fair |
| Under | 15% | 22% | 6.86 | value: +52% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 34 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.