← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 90% | 92% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 6% | 16.12 | fair |
| Volendam win | 3% | 2% | 29.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Volendam −3.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC Twente '65 −3.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82% | 77% | 1.17 | fair |
| Under | 18% | 23% | 5.61 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Damon Mirani · Volendam |
| 8' | 🟨 | Luke Le Roux · Volendam |
| 9' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 21' | ⚽ | Damon Mirani · Volendam |
| 23' | ⚽ | Naci Ünüvar · FC Twente '65 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Robin Pröpper · FC Twente '65 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Youri Regeer · FC Twente '65 |
| 43' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Brian Plat · Volendam |
| 73' |
| 5 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| ⚽ |
| Sem Steijn · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 316.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1726.74 | 1351.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.73 | -4.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 63.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -1.30 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | -2.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 9.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 22.93 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 2.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.24 |