← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 57% | 55% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.30 | value: +4% |
| NEC win | 21% | 21% | 4.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| NEC +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 36% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Marcos López · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Calvin Stengs · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 47' | ⚽ | Kodai Sano · NEC |
| 49' | 🟥 | Bram Nuytinck · NEC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Yankuba Minteh · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leo Sauer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 1411.00 | 1046.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1601.17 | 1892.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.73 | 10.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 2.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 50.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 5.77 | 6.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 13.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 22.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 1.99 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | 1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 10.40 |
| squad age | 25.60 | 25.58 |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 2.83 |