← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Martens
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 60% | 67% | 1.62 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.62 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 19% | 13% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| SC Heerenveen −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 67% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 33% | 3.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Anas Tahiri · SC Heerenveen |
| 21' | 🟨 | Dominik Oroz · Vitesse |
| 23' | ⚽ | Marco van Ginkel · Vitesse |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ramon Hendriks · Vitesse |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco van Ginkel · Vitesse |
| 61' | 🟨 | Paxten Aaronson · Vitesse |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 11.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1524.34 | 1401.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.24 | -18.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 8.77 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | -0.42 | -1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 25.09 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.32 |