← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 12:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 74% | 69% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.33 | value: +5% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 11% | 14% | 9.00 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fortuna Sittard +1.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| PSV +1.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 67% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 33% | 3.18 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.