← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 57% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.44 | fair |
| Heracles win | 21% | 20% | 4.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| SBV Excelsior −1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 65% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 35% | 3.05 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · SBV Excelsior |
| 45' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · SBV Excelsior |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mohamed Sankoh · Heracles |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles |
| 66' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · SBV Excelsior |
| 67' | ⚽ | Couhaib Driouech · SBV Excelsior |
| 68' | 🟨 | Couhaib Driouech · SBV Excelsior |
| 70' | 🟨 | Arthur Zagre · SBV Excelsior |
| 70' | 🟨 | Marko Vejinović · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Couhaib Driouech · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Van Donge & De Roo Stadion |
| coach days | 1593.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1400.33 | 1441.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.70 | -10.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 5.77 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -1.27 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.24 | 26.81 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.81 |