← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, May 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 87% | 87% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 10% | 12.43 | value: +19% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 5% | 4% | 22.32 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −2.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| PEC Zwolle −2.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 81% | 72% | 1.17 | fair |
| Under | 19% | 28% | 5.16 | value: +44% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 3 |
| 17 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand