← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 70% | 75% | 1.40 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.80 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 12% | 10% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior −1.75 | 56% | 1.84 |
| AFC Ajax −1.75 | 44% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 72% | 1.51 | value: +9% |
| Under | 36% | 28% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Devyne Rensch · AFC Ajax |
| 36' | 🟥 | Steven Bergwijn · AFC Ajax |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Julian Baas · SBV Excelsior |
| 53' | ⚽ | Lazaros Lamprou · SBV Excelsior |
| 67' | 🟨 | Siebe Horemans · SBV Excelsior |
| 68' | 🟨 | Benjamin Tahirović · AFC Ajax |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mimeirhel Benita · SBV Excelsior |
| 77' | 🟨 | Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax |
| 89' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days |
| 206.00 |
| 1575.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1685.99 | 1394.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.37 | -3.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 48.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 10.18 | 12.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.96 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.36 | — |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.64 |