← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 14, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 60% | 54% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 18% | 26% | 5.32 | value: +39% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| NEC −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 51% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 49% | 2.49 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Anouar El Azzouzi · PEC Zwolle |
| 10' | ⚽ | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mees Hoedemakers · NEC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Odysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle |
| 38' | 🟨 | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 47' | ⚽ | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Odysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle |
| 86' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lennart Czyborra · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 1383.00 | 895.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1611.98 | 1453.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.97 | -27.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.74 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 46.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.32 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 26.94 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.53 |