← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 12, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 56% | 55% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +9% |
| Volendam win | 21% | 21% | 4.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Volendam −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 59% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 41% | 2.64 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Troy Parrott · SBV Excelsior |
| 15' | 🟨 | Oskar Buur · Volendam |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mimeirhel Benita · SBV Excelsior |
| 30' | 🟨 | Benaissa Benamar · Volendam |
| 41' | ⚽ | Lance Duijvestijn · SBV Excelsior |
| 43' | ⚽ | Lazaros Lamprou · SBV Excelsior |
| 55' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · SBV Excelsior |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lazaros Lamprou · SBV Excelsior |
| 77' | 🟨 | Safouane Karim · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenzo Goudmijn · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 35 | Shots | 13 |
| 15 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Van Donge & De Roo Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Safouane Karim · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟥 | Safouane Karim · Volendam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1563.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1389.50 | 1375.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.09 | 23.77 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| league points | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -1.44 |
| solidity v1 | -2.16 | -2.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.01 | 25.31 |
| state index | -1.60 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -1.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.07 | 2.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.32 |