← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 48% | 49% | 2.02 | fair |
| Volendam win | 27% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.91 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Volendam +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Waalwijk +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Volendam |
| 22' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Volendam |
| 55' | ⚽ | Reuven Niemeijer · Waalwijk |
| 59' | ⚽ | Michiel Kramer · Waalwijk |
| 60' | 🟨 | Robin Maulun · Volendam |
| 75' | ⚽ | Darius Johnson · Volendam |
| 83' | 🟨 | Juriën Gaari · Waalwijk |
| 90' | 🟨 | Safouane Karim · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benaissa Benamar · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Godfried Roemeratoe · Waalwijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| coach days | 128.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1364.60 | 1451.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.29 | 7.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| league points | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 2.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.54 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -2.70 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.62 | 26.28 |
| state index | -1.31 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.82 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.32 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.60 |