← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 41% | 36% | 2.37 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 33% | 38% | 2.91 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| NEC +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Paxten Aaronson · Vitesse |
| 46' | 🟨 | Youri Baas · NEC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kodai Sano · NEC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mees Hoedemakers · NEC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dominik Oroz · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | D'Leanu Arts · NEC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 158.00 | 1376.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1407.10 | 1600.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.41 | 36.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -1.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 17.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 4.73 | 4.64 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.65 | 26.36 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.18 |