← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Perez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 50% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.78 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 25% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SBV Excelsior −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Sven Nieuwpoort · SBV Excelsior |
| 18' | ⚽ | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 66' | ⚽ | Odysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle |
| 76' | 🟨 | Julian Baas · SBV Excelsior |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lennart Thy · PEC Zwolle |
| 86' | ⚽ | Lance Duijvestijn · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.09 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days | 887.00 | 1557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1446.12 | 1396.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.19 | -29.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -1.74 | -1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 23.91 |
| state index | -1.29 | -1.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 0.96 |