← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Thu, Apr 4, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: I. Oostrom
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 88% | 79% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 12% | 12.60 | value: +56% |
| Volendam win | 4% | 9% | 23.40 | value: +105% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +2.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Volendam +2.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79% | 75% | 1.21 | fair |
| Under | 21% | 25% | 4.54 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Benaissa Benamar · Volendam |
| 41' | 🟨 | Josh Flint · Volendam |
| 41' | 🟨 | Dávid Hancko · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oskar Buur · Volendam |
| 61' | 🟨 | Hoeve Quincy · Volendam |
| 76' | 🟨 | George Cox · Volendam |
| 88' | 🟨 | Timon Wellenreuther · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Le Roux · Volendam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 23 |
| 1 | On target | 10 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 22 | Fouls | 5 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 125.00 | 1008.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 5.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1355.87 | 1882.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.55 | 16.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 4.08 | 4.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 2.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | -2.99 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.13 | 24.25 |
| state index | -1.62 | 1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.24 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.89 |