← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 3, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 66% | 68% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Heracles win | 13% | 13% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +1.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| AZ +1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 43% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Brian De Keersmaecker · Heracles |
| 19' | ⚽ | Brian De Keersmaecker · Heracles |
| 34' | 🟨 | Justin Hoogma · Heracles |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kristijan Belić · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mohamed Sankoh · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mohamed Sankoh · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 18 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| coach days | 93.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1451.68 | 1708.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.85 | 26.59 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| league points | 26.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.18 | 3.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.91 |
| solidity v1 | -0.39 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 25.07 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.62 |