← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Tue, Apr 2, 06:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 84% | 85% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 7% | 10.13 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 6% | 7% | 18.13 | value: +36% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SBV Excelsior +2.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| PSV +2.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 76% | 76% | 1.26 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 0 | Shots | 21 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 12 |
| 8 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.