← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 73% | 74% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 6.04 | value: +5% |
| FC Utrecht win | 10% | 9% | 9.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| FC Utrecht −1.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 61% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 39% | 2.59 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Othman Boussaid · FC Utrecht |
| 30' | 🟨 | Quilindschy Hartman · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Lammers · FC Utrecht |
| 36' | ⚽ | Igor Paixão · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 49' | 🟨 | Bart Nieuwkoop · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 51' | 🟨 | Can Bozdoğan · FC Utrecht |
| 59' | 🟨 | Niklas Vesterlund · FC Utrecht |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Oscar Fraulo · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 71' | ⚽ | Dávid Hancko · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lutsharel Geertruida · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadion Feijenoord |
| 85' | ⚽ | Leo Sauer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1004.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.09 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1879.01 | 1604.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.96 | 18.70 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.86 |
| league points | 62.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 1.10 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.11 | 26.96 |
| state index | 1.43 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 1.16 |