← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 60% | 54% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.45 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 18% | 24% | 5.50 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AFC Ajax +1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 63% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 37% | 2.82 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Odysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle |
| 12' | ⚽ | Kristian Hlynsson · AFC Ajax |
| 24' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
| 38' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sivert Mannsverk · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | 🟨 | Apostolos Vellios · PEC Zwolle |
| 72' | ⚽ | Filip Krastev · PEC Zwolle |
| 77' | 🟨 | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
| 89' | 🟨 | Silvano Vos · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days |
| 881.00 |
| 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1452.40 | 1682.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.29 | -14.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| league points | 28.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 14.69 | 13.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 1.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.54 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 1.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.25 |