← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 37% | 30% | 2.70 | fair |
| Almere City win | 35% | 36% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Almere City +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 44% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 56% | 2.09 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Yoann Cathline · Almere City |
| 27' | 🟨 | Theo Barbet · Almere City |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ruben Roosken · Heracles |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Robinet · Almere City |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 59' | 🟥 | Thomas Robinet · Almere City |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sven Sonnenberg · Heracles |
| 88' | 🟨 | Peer Koopmeiners · Almere City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jason van Duiven · Almere City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| coach days |
| 62.00 |
| 823.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1427.96 | 1498.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.47 | 15.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 60.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -1.88 |
| solidity v1 | -1.68 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.67 |