← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 3, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hensgens
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 66% | 56% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 4.97 | value: +25% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 14% | 18% | 7.04 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SC Heerenveen −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Eliano Reijnders · SC Heerenveen |
| 21' | 🟨 | Anas Tahiri · PEC Zwolle |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Anas Tahiri · SC Heerenveen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Sven van Beek · PEC Zwolle |
| 81' | 🟨 | Filip Krastev · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Oliver Braude · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 611.00 | 853.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.29 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1520.87 | 1491.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.81 | 15.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.77 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.50 |