← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 60% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Volendam win | 18% | 17% | 5.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC +1 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Volendam +1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 66% | 1.63 | value: +8% |
| Under | 41% | 34% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kodai Sano · NEC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Sylla Sow · NEC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Vivaldo · Volendam |
| 61' | 🟨 | Youri Baas · NEC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Rober González · NEC |
| 86' | ⚽ | Zach Booth · Volendam |
| 89' | 🟨 | Milan de Haan · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Flint · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rober González · NEC |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 11 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 91.00 | 1339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1362.31 | 1564.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.18 | 11.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 1.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.64 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 13.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -16.60 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 19.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | 1.08 |
| solidity v1 | -2.44 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 24.57 | 26.38 |
| state index | -1.65 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.21 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 2.13 |