← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 57% | 47% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 20% | 32% | 5.01 | value: +58% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| FC Utrecht −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 62% | 1.82 | value: +13% |
| Under | 46% | 38% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand