← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 11, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 50% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 28% | 24% | 3.43 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| AFC Ajax +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 66% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 34% | 2.85 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 38' | ⚽ | Osame Sahraoui · SC Heerenveen |
| 46' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sven van Beek · SC Heerenveen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mats Köhlert · SC Heerenveen |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Paweł Bochniewicz · AFC Ajax |
| 65' | 🟨 | Oliver Braude · SC Heerenveen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Paweł Bochniewicz · SC Heerenveen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 590.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.17 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1496.99 | 1723.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.41 | 13.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 1.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.80 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 22.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 7.82 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 2.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.38 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.75 |