← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 10, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Nijhuis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 44% | 40% | 2.23 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 30% | 32% | 3.32 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Vitesse −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 53% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 47% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Kacper Kozłowski · Vitesse |
| 27' | ⚽ | Melle Meulensteen · Vitesse |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jordy Bruijn · Heracles |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nicolas Isimat-Mirin · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolas Isimat-Mirin · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟥 | Nicolas Isimat-Mirin · Vitesse |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jannes Wieckhoff · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| coach days | 40.00 | 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1425.41 | 1427.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.67 | -40.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.36 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.93 |
| solidity v1 | -3.03 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.96 | -1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.57 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.56 |