← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 4, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 75% | 74% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.73 | fair |
| Volendam win | 8% | 10% | 11.42 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Volendam −1.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| FC Utrecht −1.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.45 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Zach Booth · Volendam |
| 35' | 🟨 | Othman Boussaid · FC Utrecht |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mike Van der Hoorn · FC Utrecht |
| 38' | ⚽ | Taylor Booth · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nick Viergever · FC Utrecht |
| 50' | 🟨 | Josh Flint · Volendam |
| 54' | ⚽ | Josh Flint · Volendam |
| 57' | ⚽ | Taylor Booth · FC Utrecht |
| 84' | ⚽ | Taylor Booth · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 156.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1559.27 | 1377.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.11 | -2.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.66 |
| league points | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 7.73 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -1.45 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 0.61 |