← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 3, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: J. van der Laan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 42% | 45% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.32 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 29% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| SC Heerenveen −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Simon Olsson · SC Heerenveen |
| 19' | ⚽ | Osame Sahraoui · SC Heerenveen |
| 24' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ivo Pinto · Fortuna Sittard |
| 55' | 🟨 | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Alen Halilović · Fortuna Sittard |
| 63' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Guth · Fortuna Sittard |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 80' | ⚽ | Alen Halilović · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 247.00 | 582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 4.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1445.31 | 1496.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.23 | -33.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | 0.64 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.79 |