← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: I. Oostrom
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 44% | 51% | 2.27 | value: +16% |
| NEC win | 30% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Go Ahead Eagles −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 63% | 1.70 | value: +8% |
| Under | 44% | 37% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Calvin Verdonk · NEC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Joris Kramer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bart van Rooij · NEC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Magnus Mattsson · NEC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Bas Kuipers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jasper Cillessen · NEC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Tjaronn Chery · NEC |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Victor Kaj Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| coach days | 545.00 | 1306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.39 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1530.41 | 1553.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.16 | 67.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 25.95 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.14 |