← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 60% | 73% | 1.60 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.58 | fair |
| Heracles win | 19% | 11% | 5.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +1.25 | 57% | 1.68 |
| AFC Ajax +1.25 | 43% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · Heracles |
| 15' | 🟨 | Brian De Keersmaecker · Heracles |
| 16' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
| 57' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kenneth Taylor · AFC Ajax |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kristian Hlynsson · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sava Arangel Čestić · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 31 |
| 7 | On target | 12 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| coach days | 26.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1440.43 | 1713.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.75 | 15.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 1.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.91 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 19.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 1.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.80 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.22 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 2.64 |