← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 27, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 41% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 32% | 36% | 3.11 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Waalwijk −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 54% | 2.00 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Juriën Gaari · Waalwijk |
| 46' | 🟨 | Metinho · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 53' | ⚽ (og) | Arno Verschueren · Waalwijk |
| 54' | 🟨 | Michiel Kramer · Waalwijk |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dario Van Den Buijs · Waalwijk |
| 57' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 75' | 🟥 | Godfried Roemeratoe · Waalwijk |
| 81' | 🟨 | Etienne Vaessen · Waalwijk |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Joshua Kitolano · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 87' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · Waalwijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Mandemakers Stadion |
| coach days | 210.00 | 210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1430.29 | 1582.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.61 | -5.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 72.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -1.00 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 2.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.48 |