← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 21, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gözübüyük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 83% | 75% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 17% | 8.97 | value: +50% |
| Vitesse win | 6% | 8% | 17.00 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse +2.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +2.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 29% | 3.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Lutsharel Geertruida · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 24' | 🟨 | Dominik Oroz · Vitesse |
| 76' | ⚽ | Amine Boutrah · Vitesse |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ondrej Lingr · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 85' | 🟨 | Melle Meulensteen · Vitesse |
| 85' | 🟨 | Justin Bijlow · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gernot Trauner · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toni Domgjoni · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mats Wieffer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 81.00 | 934.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.21 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.78 |
| elo | 1451.83 | 1838.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.56 | -9.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 2.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 12.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 67.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 16.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 23.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 2.35 |
| solidity v1 | -1.95 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 8.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.28 |
| state index | -0.83 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 0.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 2.70 |