← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 14, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: P. van Boekel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 54% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 24% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.36 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AFC Ajax +0.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 37% | 2.78 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 44' | ⚽ | Victor Kaj Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Benjamin Tahirović · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kristian Hlynsson · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jakov Medić · AFC Ajax |
| 58' | ⚽ | Joris Kramer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 72' | ⚽ | Devyne Rensch · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 17 |
| 12 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| venue | De Adelaarshorst |
| coach days | 531.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1514.55 | 1730.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.88 | 14.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 1.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 28.82 | 27.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 1.61 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 22.90 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 2.69 |