← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Kooij
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 78% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.70 | value: +9% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 9% | 7% | 12.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle −2 | 51% | 1.92 |
| AFC Ajax −2 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 75% | 73% | 1.28 | fair |
| Under | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Odysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle |
| 35' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 48' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
| 54' | 🟨 | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 60' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · PEC Zwolle |
| 89' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Apostolos Vellios · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 77.00 | 776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1709.74 | 1451.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.14 | 1.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.80 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 2.82 | 7.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 21.70 | — |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.48 | 1.23 |