β Eredivisie 2023-24 Β· Sun, Dec 17, 01:30 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 80% | 79% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 8.21 | fair |
| Heracles win | 7% | 10% | 14.48 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +2 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Heracles +2 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 71% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | β½ | Calvin Stengs Β· Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 18' | β½ | Calvin Stengs Β· Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 41' | π¨ | Mario Engels Β· Heracles |
| 48' | β½ | Lutsharel Geertruida Β· Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 60' | β½ | Quinten Timber Β· Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 74' | π¨ | Sem Scheperman Β· Heracles |
| 88' | π¨ | Marko VejinoviΔ Β· Heracles |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 2 | Shots | 26 |
| 0 | On target | 12 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | β | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | β | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | β | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | β | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Erve Asito |
| coach days | 16.00 | 899.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 4.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1436.08 | 1842.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.73 | 1.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 2.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | β |
| league points | 15.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 67.00 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 9.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 20.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 2.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.70 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.40 |
| squad age | β | 23.95 |
| state index | -0.74 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 2.75 |