← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. van de Graaf
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 49% | 39% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.68 | value: +21% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 25% | 28% | 4.04 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Fortuna Sittard −0.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Dirk Proper · NEC |
| 24' | 🟥 | Tijjani Noslin · Fortuna Sittard |
| 33' | ⚽ | Magnus Mattsson · NEC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Elayis Tavsan · NEC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 50' | 🟥 | Mees Hoedemakers · NEC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Guth · Fortuna Sittard |
| 69' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 70' | ⚽ | Magnus Mattsson · NEC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sontje Hansen · NEC |
| 83' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| Ivo Pinto · Fortuna Sittard |
| 86' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1262.00 | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1508.18 | 1454.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.62 | 13.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -1.48 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.24 |