← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Oostrom
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 76% | 75% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.91 | value: +19% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 9% | 8% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 −1.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SBV Excelsior −1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 63% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 37% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · SBV Excelsior |
| 13' | ⚽ | Sven Nieuwpoort · SBV Excelsior |
| 24' | 🟨 | Noah Naujoks · SBV Excelsior |
| 25' | 🟥 | Arthur Zagre · SBV Excelsior |
| 26' | 🟨 | Couhaib Driouech · SBV Excelsior |
| 45' | ⚽ | Manfred Ugalde · FC Twente '65 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Siebe Horemans · SBV Excelsior |
| 59' | 🟨 | Sven Nieuwpoort · SBV Excelsior |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gijs Smal · FC Twente '65 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 31 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 77' |
| 🟨 |
| Robin Pröpper · FC Twente '65 |
| 80' | ⚽ | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Younes Taha · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 160.00 | 1437.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1726.22 | 1435.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.44 | -4.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.23 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.73 | -2.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 2.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.48 |