← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Bos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 47% | 49% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.60 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 26% | 34% | 3.79 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Fortuna Sittard −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 59% | 1.91 | value: +12% |
| Under | 49% | 41% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 23' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 31' | 🟨 | Melle Meulensteen · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Fortuna Sittard |
| 47' | ⚽ | Tijjani Noslin · Fortuna Sittard |
| 49' | 🟨 | Melle Meulensteen · Vitesse |
| 49' | 🟥 | Melle Meulensteen · Vitesse |
| 64' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Vitesse |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dominik Oroz · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 184.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 4.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1432.54 | 1469.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.54 | -47.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 39.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.05 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | -2.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.44 | -1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 2.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.86 |