← Eredivisie 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 73% | 71% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 6.46 | value: +24% |
| Vitesse win | 12% | 10% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax −1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Vitesse −1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 69% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Jorrel Hato · AFC Ajax |
| 12' | ⚽ | Kristian Hlynsson · AFC Ajax |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Dominik Oroz · AFC Ajax |
| 58' | ⚽ | Chuba Akpom · AFC Ajax |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kenneth Taylor · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Bergwijn · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Toni Domgjoni · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Cornelisse · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 55.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 5.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1686.63 | 1476.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.68 | -44.15 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 39.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 13.27 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | -1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 22.55 | — |
| state index | 0.22 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.03 |